Yesterday's article in the Telegraph about champagne prices crashing to £15, or even £10, by Christmas, was wide of the mark in several respects.
I suppose that were it to happen, champagne at £10 a bottle would be good news for some, and it may yet happen. However, despite the Telegraph's apparent certainty that it's only a matter of months before this comes to pass, the story bears some closer inspection.
First of all there seems to be a misunderstanding about what is happening with this year's harvest.
The normally reliable Telegraph stated that " row upon row of grapes will be left unharvested this year" as champagne makers seek desperately to reduce the bloated stock of champagne they cannot sell.
This is quite simply not the case.
The amount of grapes that will be harvested is 14,000 kg per hectare from a maximum yield estimated at around 14,500 kg. So, whilst there may well be some grapes that are left on the vine, how that translates to "row upon row "of rotting fruit, I am at a loss to understand. Besides, there is some fruit left on the vines almost every year.
Furthermore most commentators fail to mention two other very relevant facts:
First, the admittedly large fall in 'sales' of champagne that are being reported relate to figures for the first few months of the year. Statistics for the more recent months are not so dramatically down. The figures for May ( the latest available) show only a 19.3% drop versus 2008 for the big champagne brands and only a 14.6% drop overall. (Source CIVC)
On a 12 month basis (June 2008 to May 2009) total sales of champagne are only 11.1 % down on last year.
I agree that's not a great result, but it's a far cry from the doom and gloom you might assume from reading the Telegraph article and the other 'experts' quoted in that article.
Second, the article announced that "champagne exports have fallen by 45% in the first quarter" .
On studying the source given for that statistic, it appears that 45% is only mentioned in relation to one particular brand, Laurent Perrier. The same source document says that a drop of 20% is expected for champagne this year.
Furthermore the Telegraph dramatically announced that " consumers in India.. have stopped buying the drink" - not the whole story to Sommelier India magazine ( July 2009).
Besides, champagne sales are still so small in India that they could disappear altogether and hardly anyone in Champagne would even notice!
Last, but not least, the 'sales' figures being bandied about are figures for exports from France. In other words, shipments to the importers and wholesalers in each market. The is NOT the same as saying that consumers have reduced their champagne drinking to the same extent.
There has certainly been a reduction in champagne consumption, but once importers have got their stocks back in line with demand they will resume orders from France once again and the exports from France should show some sign of recovery.
One is tempted to say that the U.K. press likes making a drama out of a crisis and will do anything to create a good story, but that is so unlike them that it surely can't be true.
"The normally reliable Telegraph"...er have you ever READ the Telagraph? LOL! Sorry, but comments such as that undermine the credibility of an otherwise good article.
Posted by: Macau Man | 09/10/2009 at 11:19 AM